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How a real lockdown could stop COVID-19



It’s been almost eight months since the first coronavirus case was reported in the US and yet, experts say we just have to look forward to one fall and winter of suffering and death – and the most trusted doctor in the country says us have won. ‘t be back to normal by the end of 2021.

“If you talk about returning to a level of normalcy similar to pre-COVID, it will go well into 2021, maybe even towards the end of 2021,” said Anthony Fauci, director of the National Allergy Institute and Infectious Diseases, in an interview with MSNBC’s “Andrea Mitchell Reports” last Friday.

By the end of this year, there will be nearly half a million deaths from the novel coronavirus in the United States if mandates on social distancing continue to wane and without universal masking, the latest forecast from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, which accurately predicted the number of deaths through October. If this dark prophecy comes true, nearly 3,000 people will die from COVID every day, more than three times the current rate.

If another year and three months of thousands of people dying every day while schools and businesses open and close and reopen and close doesn̵

7;t sound appealing, there is only one solution: a real lockdown for six weeks.

Let’s just get this over with.

Why banning is a wise move

The evidence is now clear: locks work. We know that tough lockdowns have been in place in China that have slowed the spread of the virus. In Wuhan, the unprecedented 76-day lockdown that banned people from leaving the city or their homes except for every three days to get food stopped new infections by two-thirds.

Now in Wuhan, whose lives have been stalled for a few months, are going to the movies while in the US we are caught in endless zoom meetings.

Elsewhere in Italy, a five-week lockdown has cut virus transmission almost in half and kept more than 200,000 people out of the hospital. It was the same in France and New Zealand.

The evidence of lockdowns is so clear that even Deborah Birx, the coordinator of the White House’s coronavirus task force, agrees that we should have had a stricter lockdown in March.

“I wish we would look like Italy when we went into lockdown,” said Dr. Deborah Birx told reporters on Aug. 17.

But while many countries were putting real lockdowns in place and keeping their citizens away from hospital beds and early graves, many states were “waiting to see how bad this gets” before implementing any sort of stay-at-home order.

The lack of a real lockdown and patchwork of government guidelines appears to be a strategy developed by the COVID virus itself. Although 41 states and DC had a statewide ordinance by April, five states resided (Arkansas, Iowa, Nebraska, North Dakota, and South Dakota) while four others had restrictions only in some cities (Oklahoma, South Carolina, Utah, and the United States) Wyoming).

Just as falls started to rise in the summer, states decided to relax their orders. All 50 states began easing restrictions in June. More than 70,000 people have died since June.

Many of our politicians spoke out against bans, turned the economy against life itself, said “there are more important things than life” (like the economy), and cheerfully promised that “freedom-loving Americans will rebel”.

But because those first bans were half-hearted, the need for a second can be a death sentence for some small businesses, like the one in Florida.

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What a lock wouldn’t and wouldn’t do

However, a strict lockdown does not have to mean a certain fate for companies. Check out Italy, where grants, loan guarantees, tax breaks, and other financial aids have helped their economy rebound better than predicted.

Without a real lockdown, the other tools we’re using to fight coronavirus won’t work as well. Take contact tracing, the idea that we can track down people who are in contact with infected people and offer them tests and treatments.

The problem is, contact tracing works best when the number of cases is 1 per 100,000. With 250,265 cases in the past seven days, we’re at more than ten times the rate we need for effective contact tracing.

Once we close, let’s take a lesson from Vò, Italy, a small town that decided to test and retest all of them during the darkest days of the Italian outbreak in March. This approach not only lowered the infection rate to 1.2%, but also hit more than 40% of asymptomatic people.

A ban is not about doing nothing

A six-week statewide lockdown that includes active case identification – going door to door and testing and retesting everyone using a pre-made $ 1 rapid antigen test that will give results in fifteen minutes on a strip of paper like a pregnancy test can quarantine people who have been sick for two weeks – this is the fastest way to return to normal.

We should have locked properly the first time – that goes for everyone. Implementing the limited social distancing policy we had in the US just a week earlier would have saved at least 36,000 people. If Wuhan had implemented its draconian policy three weeks earlier, it would have been only 5 percent of all cases.

Coronavirus is projected to kill more than two hundred and twenty thousand people in the United States by the end of the year. Nobody should die because we think it’s too late to do the right thing. Is not it.

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